Putting Iran In Context

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Sensible letter to the Economist from Sir Richard Dalton, a former Ambassador to Iran:

SIR – Do you really think Iran could become a regional hegemon (“Can Iran be stopped?”, June 22nd)? In one respect or another, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia, Turkey and Egypt are all as strong or stronger. Iran cannot even dominate the Gulf. The six Arab countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), led by Saudi Arabia, tend to exaggerate Iranian influence, including in Bahrain and Yemen.

Only from southern Lebanon does Iran have the ability to project serious power. For sure, it has a strong influence in Iraq, some in Gaza, and a tightening alliance with Syria, but this merely allows Iran to maintain the position it has enjoyed for many years. This still doesn’t amount to “regional hegemony”.

You also did not mention that Iran has a policy of converting its 20% enriched uranium into oxide, ready for research-reactor fuel-making. This puts the material beyond use for bombs (short of a time-consuming, detectable and technically demanding process to turn it back into gas, which can be discounted in the medium term). That is why the United States and Israel seem relaxed about waiting for the autumn before a new round of negotiations.

The idea that everyone would bow down before Iran if it got nuclear-weapons capability is fanciful. Actions lead to reactions, and one of the reactions to deployed weapons (if there were no immediate war) would be sanctions in perpetuity and possibly an American nuclear umbrella over the West’s friends in the region. In such circumstances, what power would Iran acquire as a result of having nukes, other than deterrence?

Finally, it should be noted that Iran’s economy has been floundering, its armed forces out of date. It has minimal stocks of modern air and land weapons and has lost influence in Arab countries as a combined result of sanctions, the turmoil caused by repression after its disputed election in 2009, and the Arab spring. Since the shah’s day, the balance of power has tilted heavily against Iran, especially as the armies of the GCC have become far stronger. Some experts think the air force of the United Arab Emirates alone could take out the entire Iranian one.

Iran’s influence has fluctuated. It is rising in Iraq. Its help is desperately needed by Bashar Assad in Syria. But elsewhere, the “rise of Persia” is a myth.

Sir Richard Dalton

British ambassador to Iran, 2003-06

London

via Letters | The Economist.

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#Syria: #Refugee Crisis Deepens

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Photo: AP Number of registered Syrian refugees and country of asylum, as of Augist 2012

Since Syrian protests developed into a civil war, the entire region has experienced an exodus of refugees from the violence. More than 250,000 Syrians have registered in neighbouring countries with the UN High Commission on Refugees, while many have fled without registering, and more than a million are internally displaced.

Syrian refugee count. (Design by Farwa Rizwan/Al Arabiya English)

Complicating matters further, Syria has long been home to refugees fleeing other conflict zones in the region. Communities of Iraqis in Damascus and Palestinians near the south western border now find themselves uprooted for a second time.

Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq have opened their borders to many of those fleeing the Syrian conflict. Other governments and international agencies have responded with aid. But with approximately 50,000 fleeing Syria every month, more and more refugees risk the deprivation of shelter, food, security, and other basic human rights.

#Lebanon Seizes Arms for #Syria Rebels from #Libya via #Egypt

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Lutfallah II

In Lebanon, military prosecutor Saqr Saqr said the army confiscated three containers filled with weapons destined for Syrian rebels, according to classified information obtained from sources within Lebanon’s security forces. The arms were discovered on board the “Lutfallah II”, the Sierra Leone-flagged ship intercepted two nights ago by teams from the Beirut Navy off the Lebanon’s northern coast. Saqr said an investigation was under way, adding that the 11 crew members were being questioned by Lebanese military intelligence.

The ship is said to have been carrying machine-guns, rocket and grenade launchers, shells, missiles and explosives. After initially docking at the port of Selaata, around 50 kilometres north of Beirut, the Lutfallah II raised anchor again this morning and, with a huge escort, headed for an undisclosed destination.

The ship had set sail from Libya and after a stopover in Alexandria, and was heading for the southern Lebanese port of Tyre, where it had been authorised to dock.

The weapons cargo has been taken to Beirut on board three lorries, escorted by armoured off-road army vehicles and a helicopter. Bashar Al Assad’s regime has complained on several occasions that neighbouring Lebanon, whose government is favourable to Assad, is used as a corridor for weapons bound for rebels in Syria.

Roumieh prison: Lebanon’s national “trash bag” of humanity

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Every time I go inside those walls and those metallic gates, I come out with a heavy heart and head, with shame and disgust of what ever happened to our humanity.
 Yesterday, we did it again. We went visiting the death row inmates in Roumieh prison…
It was cold and rainy outside.
But we were offered toothless smiles and a warm coffee.
Let me stay out of the eternal debate of pro and anti capital punishment here…
Let me just try putting a face on the “criminal” we all seem to fear and hate…
When you put your waste in a neat bag and throw it outside, you forget about it. You naively think it will disappear. You read about global warming, you discuss the others filthy way of living, and how waste is dangerous and smelly, you get nausea when you pass near a landfill, you regret how things are going from bad to worst environmentally.
But.
You won’t even think of sorting your waste, of reducing your water consumption, of going green… You feel no responsibility, your personal luxury always wins over your long-term concern…
It goes the same with what goes on in Roumieh prison…
We throw criminals, offenders, drug dealers/consumers, fraud people, investigated ones…all together in a swamp called Roumieh, where everything is possible among detainees and convicted. Where-as we all know by now- an offender learns how to become a killer or a drug dealer or drug manufacturer.
For months now we’ve been following Roumieh news and crisis. We all agreed it’s inhuman, we all discussed that things ought to change, we even became experts in numbers and stats, we certainly blamed the governments and all politicians. How many times did we repeat:” there are so many innocent people behind the bars?” or “this is an inhuman situation”.
But.we are so busy, we are continuously seeking our daily routine and our small extras, we are in a race with never ending news, we forget that there is a human disaster there.
They’re away, locked in a dump, far from our visual memory.Why should we think of them when no one think of us??
Well, here are some “visuals” for you…some heartbreaking stories…maybe, just maybe, you’ll have a little thought for the meaning of the word “humanity”…
-Many of the inmates have been sentenced to death under the inhuman law named  ”The Killer Is Killed”-where no mitigating circumstances were taken into consideration, back in the 90’s. This law was abolished long years ago, but many of the convicted who should have been out of there, or at least get another different sentence, were left behind. No new trials no nothing. “What should they do if out? better stay inside.”
-One of the oldest convicted, has half a face : since day one of his investigation, he received a kick in the face, was left bleeding for 13 days, until he said: okay, I killed the prophets if you want but I need a doctor. He signed his death sentence. (Is he an exception about torture in Lebanon? we know better). “Yeah, poor thing, but what can we do? tsk tsk tsk.”
– Another one is convicted with a crime that happened while he was abroad. “So? What’s the difference?”
-One killed his best friend while drunk, after fighting over the victim’s wife. This man spends his days crying in regret and remorse for what happened that drunk night. He wrote letters of apologies for the victim’s family. He is incapable of forgiving himself for killing his best friend.” Good for him! let him rot there! No second chance whatsoever. Not for him.”
-One convicted with murder has been visited by his allegedly dead victim!!!! And he’s still there. No one asked, no one tried to make a headline out of it. “Who cares????”
-One schizophrenic young man just got his death penalty sentence along with his under age wife, held in the juvenile prison. Both charged in murdering their house owner while he was trying to rape the wife (according to the young man). He is under heavy medication and lost any sense of time and date or details… “But hey, it’s easier to kill him rather than cure him (he’s just a foreigner)!”
-A man aged 80 years or so, barely standing, trembling and freezing was brought to us, he doesn’t have a clue why he’s here. Inmates told us he’s been here for a month now, detained for drug consumption. I don’t know about you, but I thought consumers should receive medical help. And I don’t know about you again, but at his age, I don’t think Roumieh is a place for him.
-I won’t get into the space issue, the lack of proper health care, the food, the drugs, the human sex toys inside, the gangs… it’s too complicated to discuss in these lines…
-Many of Roumieh prisoners might deserve to be there. But punishment touches every single member of their families. They are treated as criminals as well. Even kids coming for visit. Moms and wives bringing food for the week(because prison’s food is a disaster), have to walk long distances with over 20 kilograms on a bumpy road to reach the hill inside.”They brought it to themselves! some try to introduce drugs and cell phones! let all the rest pay the price! bunch of criminals!!!”
There’s a lot of offenders, of criminals. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t want them to get away with their felony. But I thought justice meant correction, help, rehabilitation, righteousness, protection of society and offenders from primitive revenge. I thought criminals had to work and give their gains in prison to the families of victims and their own.
I thought justice was just.
I thought justice admits when it is wrong.


Justice speaks in our names, it says: “In the name of the people of Lebanon” when sentencing. Well, I don’t agree with many aspects of their justice, so could they please add to their sentence: “except for one citizen”?

via Tanya Awad

News and Comments 8 Feb 2012

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Egypt accuses NGOs of meddling in politics

Egyptian soldiers stand guard in front of the US National Democratic Institute, an NGO rights group in Cairo

Egyptian judges probing alleged illegal foreign funding of non-governmental organisations accused domestic and foreign groups on Wednesday of illegally meddling in politics, further straining ties with key ally Washington.

The NGOs are operating “without licence,” and their work “constitutes pure political activity and has nothing to do with civil society work,” Judge Sameh Abu Zeid told a news conference. The judge said December raids on 17 NGO offices as part of a probe into illegal funding had been conducted “according to the law.” “It is a very large and complicated case involving hundreds of people and organisations, Egyptian and foreign,” he said. He said dozens of people had been referred to trial because there was deemed to be enough evidence. Among them are 19 Americans, a fact that prompted a trio of leading US senators to warn Egypt on Tuesday that the risk of a “disastrous” rupture in ties had “rarely been greater.”

The United States, meanwhile, said it has been notified by Egyptian authorities of the formal charges against the US citizens in a document in Arabic of more than 100 pages. “We now have a formal charging document,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters in Washington. “We’re working our way through it to understand who is implicated and … what the expectations are.” And another official in Washington said the US military’s top general plans to fly to Egypt this week, as the United States tries to press Cairo to lift the charges against the American nationals.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “is scheduled to travel to Egypt later this week,” his spokesman Colonel Dave Lapan told AFP. The “long-planned” visit includes meetings with his counterpart Lieutenant General Sami Enan and Egypt’s military ruler, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, he said. Abu Zeid said he had rejected a request from US Ambassador Anne Patterson to lift a travel ban on American NGO staff. The groups being investigated include the US International Republican Institute (IRI), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Freedom House and the German Konrad-Adenauer Foundation.

Following December’s raids, several US members of the NGOs were barred from leaving the country, including Sam LaHood, the son of US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and the IRI’s country director for Egypt. American officials said “a handful” of the pro-democracy activists subsequently took refuge inside the US embassy in Cairo, fearing arrest. Abu Zeid said “there is much evidence, including witness accounts, expert accounts and confessions. There are 67 items of evidence. The foreign organisations are not civil society groups but branches of organisations based abroad.” He said security agencies had repeatedly refused to register the NGOs, which “have been working in Egypt for years on tourist visas. “They received orders from abroad to do this and were told not to get work permits. They also violated Egyptian tax laws.” He said the case involved illegal funding from the United States, Europe and also from Arab countries.

Investigations showed that their work “took another dimension after the January 25 revolution” that ousted president Hosni Mubarak last year, Abu Zeid said. “Money was transferred to the organisations through a range of ways, including in individual accounts of employees, instead of in bank accounts in the organisation’s name; or through money transfer companies,” he said. Those charged face up to five years in jail, according to Ashraf Ashmawi, another judge involved in the case. Egypt’s military junta, which took power after Mubarak was toppled, has accused foreign groups of funding street protests against them.

On Tuesday, US Republican senators John McCain and Kelly Ayotte, joined by independent Joe Lieberman, warned that US congressional “support for Egypt — including continued financial assistance — is in jeopardy” over the case. Washington provides some $1.3 billion (981 million euros) a year in aid to Cairo — one of the biggest aid packages offered to any nation. “The current crisis with the Egyptian government has escalated to such a level that it now threatens our long-standing partnership,” they wrote in a joint statement. “There are committed opponents of the United States and the US-Egypt relationship within the government in Cairo who are exacerbating tensions and inflaming public opinion in order to advance a narrow political agenda,” they said.

IC P


Don’t be Misled on Mali

Some news websites have posted stories recently alleging attacks have been made on shopkeepers and traders in Bamako, Mali as people react to the unrest in the North. The news claims that Malians want to vent their anger on citizens of neighbouring countries. There are no photographs or video to support these claims. I have heard today from friends in Bamako who says there have been no attacks, no one is taking refuge in any embassy and everyone there is fine; life continues as normal.

El Kabar in Algeria reports [Ar] that the Red Crescent has the situation in Northern Mali under control, they send regular supplies to the area, 20 to 30 tons at a time. The last shipment was just  a few days ago. They also do not expect a massive influx of new refugees to enter Algeria as a result of the fighting in he north of Mali.

The Foreign Minister of Mali is visiting Mauritania and Algeria, and presumably Nigeria, in person, to discuss the situation, especially the influx of refugees. He is echoing the call made by 30 political groups in Mali for an immediate cease-fire so that talks can begin. I hope he also demands that the refugees are returned as quickly as they were uprooted, and that should happen immediately these talks are under way.


Damages inside a home following shelling at the Baba Amr neighborhood of Homs, Syria Photo: EPA

Damages inside a home following shelling at the Baba Amr neighborhood of Homs, Syria Photo: EPA

Homs in Shock

The people of Homs, Syria are showing signs of extreme anxiety, in shock after 5 straight days under bombardment by heavy munitions. The BBC reporter on the ground there has personally witnessed snipers killing an elderly couple as they crossed the street, and interviewed another man shot by a sniper after going in search of bread because the local bakery was destroyed by a shell.

Fires burned and smoke billowed over rooftops as heavy artillery pounded areas under the de facto control of rebels from the Free Syrian Army, killing about 50 people.

Three families were shot dead by members of a pro-regime militia, popularly known as “al-Shabiha” – or “the ghosts” – which has been responsible for numerous atrocities since the conflict began 11 months ago.

The Ghantawi family, including a girl of 15 and two boys aged seven and five, lived near al-Firdaos square. The al-Tirkawi family, with seven members, and the al-Zamal family, with eight members, both lived in the al-Nazirheen area of Homs. All were murdered when militiamen raided their homes late on Tuesday or in the early hours of yesterday morning, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based group.

Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Observatory, said the murders of the families, which claimed a total of 20 lives, had been disclosed by trusted primary sources in Homs. “This is not the first time that the Shabiha have carried out killings like this,” he said. “When they come into an area, they kill people to cause fear and to say ‘we can do more’.”

Another report – attributed to different sources – suggested that 18 babies died in a hospital in Homs after electricity for their incubators was cut off.


8 Feb 2012 Protest demanding release of jailed students

8 Feb 2012 Protest demanding release of jailed students

Mauritania Rising

Photo: Mauritania students protesting to demand the release of their imprisoned classmates arrested last Thursday when police raided a peaceful occupation of the University, which was unexpectedly closed for 3 weeks immediately after a major protest, on the pretext of granting extended holiday to celebrate Eid.

I suspect that the reason for evicting the students and keeping the most vocal activists under lock and key was so that the University could stage a “coup seminar” with invited guests from other Arab countries, including a former Jordanian minister and founder of Ennahda in Tunisia, Rachid Ghannouchi. The seminar subject? The Arab Spring!!

It seems that despite the epic failure of their Arab Spring Bloggers conference, the Mauritanian authorities are determined to seize ownership of the Arab revolutions, following the pattern of behaviour we have observed from another Islamic Republic, the one in Iran.

Recent reports indicate that the students have now been released, just in time for a visit to Mauritania by Tunisia’s new President, Moncef Marzouki. I hope that all Mauritanian activists will visit his official FaceBook page to share their experiences and concerns.

Three videos from Mauritania

Activist Abdul Birane Wane, arrested last week while visiting his brother in the hospital, was freed today. He immediately returned to the hospital, this time to visit his father, who suffered a stroke after hearing the news of Birane’s arrest.


Workers in Zouerate hold a rally, agree to maintain pressure on authorities to heed their demands for fair pay and conditions.

A member of the senate Zeinab Mint Aldadah [sp?], was expelled from the house for disagreeing with the role of the military in the governance of the country. Other senators walked out in support of her situation.


Social Media Wannabes

Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki has a new official account on Twitter, @presidenceTN linked to a FaceBook page.

The latest tweet relates to his visit to neighbouring Sahel countries of Morocco, Mauritania and Algeria which begins today. The FM says Marzouki wants to “reinvigorate” the Sahel and “also voiced hope that the Sahara issue* will cease being a hindrance to the economic development of the Maghreb”. Seriously. Marzouki stirred my displeasure by inviting Aziz to join the one year anniversary of the Tunisian revolution in January. His praise for “the wisdom and intelligence of Moroccan officials” ahead of today’s visit is yet another show of the sort of diplomacy everyone assumes is necessary but it is repulsive to me. I remain unimpressed and disappointed.

*“Sahara issue” is the coward’s way of saying “Western Sahara“.


Not to be outdone, Mauritania’s president dictator Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz has a new parody account @MedOAbdelAziz. Too soon to know if it will be comedy gold. Opening tweet invites us to ask the poor who he is, if we don’t know him already. Oh yes, General, we know you.


Iran Opposition Still Fighting

With the parliamentary elections due next month, the opposition for Iran has produced a new video based on the film Avatar.


Neighborly Help for Iranian Abductees in Syria

Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted today by IRAN daily saying the 11 men abducted while travelling with groups of pilgrims in Syria were released after the “help of friendly and influential countries in the region.” The report didn’t elaborate. I assume after Hassan Nasrallah’s recent message [Ar] confirming their relationship with Iran (and incidentally saying that what is going on in Syria is a “conspiracy”, and they prefer financial and political support from Iran over that from Arab states) that Hezbollah operatives from Lebanon might be involved in the recovery of these people. IRNA news agency says the 11 crossed into neighboring Turkey after their release. Iran banned travel by road to Syria after the third group of people were kidnapped.


Iran’s Prisoners Experience Increasing Health Issues

Human Rights Watch has called on Iran to investigate the death of  two Ahwazi detainees  in Intelligence Ministry detention facilities in the past week. On 7 January, HRW reported that Iran has arrested more than 65 Arab activists since late 2011. It also urged Iran to immediate charge or release arrestees.

Prisoners in Iran are increasingly making the news for health reasons. Today it is Abolfazl Ghadiani’s turn: he’s been transferred to hospital from Evin prison. Apart from the negative impact on health or existing conditions of the generally hostile prison environment, many prisoners get sick because of prolonged or repeated hunger strikes, where they refuse all solid foods for extended periods and drink only tea or milk. Dry hunger strikes are less common, and prisoners deteriorate much more quickly when refusing both liquids and solids. The routine use of physical and mental torture in prisons also claims many victims, and it is often the younger prisoners who we hear about of being transferred to specialist mental health institutes. As weeks have turned to months and now years, and the arrests continue, with very few prisoners so far being released, this situation is an increasing concern. The UN Human Rights Special Rapporteur on Iran, Ahmed Shaheed, has not been allowed to visit Iran, and his final report is still awaited.